The Enterprise staff's crystal ball look for '09.

What insights do members of the Enterprise newsroom have for 2009?
How did we do on our projections from a year ago of trends and stories we saw coming for Leelanau County in 2008?

For the inaugural issue of 2009, Enterprise editors and reporters take a look back at our projections made exactly a year ago and also look forward to the new year with another round of bold predictions. Here’s our crystal ball report to the county:
* * *
By Alan Campbell
Another year older, another year wiser.
At least that’s how the saying goes. In the news business, a year represents more than history — it’s ancient history.
In the Leelanau Enterprise, year-old news is four years away from showing up in Looking Back columns. It’s in a sort-of purgatory between the here-and-now and the here-and-then.
We entered 2008 being told a recession that had been limited to Michigan would expand to the whole country, peak, and be on the edge of a slow retreat within a year. In this case, hitting two of three predictions was not good.
My two personal predictions for Leelanau County made one year ago were in the ballpark in one case, and a home run in the other.
I believed 2008 would be the year the county “confronted its illogical network of providing emergency services to residents.” It was the second year for the same prediction, so I’m wondering if this was closer to a wish. Anyway, I’m happy to report there has been more talking, but again wish there was more progress.
I also wrote, “My crystal ball predicts four county commissioners will be re-elected, and sees a record fourth term for the county sheriff.” Also, “record number of residents will seek township and county positions.”
Please, don’t hold the applause.
Now for 2009, for which I thoroughly hope my dreams for the Leelanau County economy come true — and they might. Trying to make a living out of Michigan’s economy has kept my dreams grounded.
This will be the year county real estate prices bottom out. No, buyers won’t rush into the housing market. But they will quietly establish a bottom. Real estate agents and companies will do all right, for a change, as even property tax laws that depress the sale of real estate won’t be able to hold back pent up demand to move — whether up or down in house value.
Unfortunately, Leelanau County’s major housing developments will continue to falter. Three are already behind in taxes or under foreclosure, and construction of a fourth has been delayed. It will be several years before another major project is planned, leaving the county’s 13 planning commissions with more time than work. Some will consider going to quarterly meetings. More should.
Sugar Loaf will be sold, amid lower expectations. Without having to overcome a promise to relive its history, the new owner will quietly go to work. In a sign of the times, a blue collar experience will be offered — and gobbled up by the skiing public.
After you’ve heard what will happen, it doesn’t sound that bad, does it?
* * *
By Amy Hubbell
Okay, so I was half right and half wrong when it came to my predictions for 2008.
Three-quarters of my “crystal ball” forecast for last year revolved around septage — disposal, in particular. I was right on target in predicting that the Northport/Leelanau Township sewer project would be in operation by year’s end.
As of Dec. 7, 318 of the 500 homes and businesses within the sewer assessment district had hooked up.  So far, so good to date for the controversial project, which divided the Northport community.
I also called the apparent foundering of the planned sewer system in Cedar.
Solon Township failed last fall to secure state permits for a system that was not inclusive of all properties within the district. But don’t give up hope. At it’s December meeting, the Township Board under the direction of new Supervisor Jim Lautner got back on track and has an ambitious schedule for next year, which includes inspection of properties for which exemptions are sought.
I was wrong — (yes, I said wrong) about progress on Provemont Village, a residential waterfront community planned at the Lake Leelanau Narrows and the Glen Arbor restroom project.
My prediction was work would begin on the 22-unit condominium development and that “earth would move” shortly after the ground thawed. I was in error and perhaps a little more optimistic about the state of the economy than I am now. Although state permits and legal issues raised by opponents have been resolved, no significant progress was evident by year’s end
And what of the public restroom in Glen Arbor?   I expected fighting over funding the community project would continue and no progress would be made. Instead the community rallied. Visitors and tourists should be able to use the public restroom in early spring as most of the construction on the building was completed this fall.
What else lies ahead in 2009?
• The Benzie-Leelanau County Health Department will have its building sold, but will remain in the Binsfeld Center rather than move to unoccupied space in the county Government Center.
• In an effort to increase tourism in the county, knitters will band together and form the world’s largest ball of yarn from scrap fibers.
• A ferry service linking the communities of Northport and Manistique will be re-established drastically reducing the trip for county residents looking to their “getaways” up north.
* * *
By Chris Olson
What was I thinking? New England 45, Dallas 20 for my 2008 Super Bowl prediction was as shortsighted as my projected outcome on the Provemont Village project.
For the record, I went 0-3 on my 2008 predictions, putting me in the same prognostication neighborhood as The Great Carnac. My two serious predictions were that Provemont Village would get final approval from the MDEQ, but would be stopped by a successful lawsuit from the Lake Leelanau Lake Association and no work would be done this year. The second prediction was that by this month there would be an organized effort to bring sewer service to the Village of Empire.
Well, I was somewhat accurate on the Provemont Village prediction. Developer Wayne Tyge indeed received the final MDEQ permit and the lake association filed suit, but lost in court. And while I predicted the Lake Leelanau Narrows at the end of 2008 would look much as it did a year earlier, it’s not for any of the reasons I stated. Tyge has said with economic conditions being the way they are, he won’t be turning any dirt until people can afford to buy the condominiums. So, I’ll call it 0-1.
As to the Empire Village sewer prediction, an organized effort to bring central sewer service to part of the village did move forward but fell apart not because of an organized resistance, but because of state regulations. Make it 0-2.
And for my “super” prediction, the New York Giants beat the New England Patriots in the 2008 Super Bowl – and Dallas didn’t even play in the Super Bowl. So here I am, 0-3.
Hopefully, here are some more accurate predictions for 2009:
• Despite scary economic conditions in downstate areas, Leelanau County retail businesses will have another good year as the weather is decent for the summer, and the winter of 2008-09 brings plenty of the white stuff through March, extending the snowmobiling and skiing seasons.
• The Empire Dunegrass and Blues Festival will take place again this August, but as a smaller event and with a community-based organization running it.
* * *
By Eric Carlson
Ever the courageous prognosticator, last year at this time I put 50-50 odds on the success of Brad Lutz of Omena actually consummating his deal to purchase Sugar Loaf Resort from Kate Wickstrom.   It turns out that Lutz was unable to strike a deal with  the “unnamed guarantors” of Wickstrom’s mortgage on the defunct ski resort – something I alluded to in my prediction – and, so, the status of Sugar Loaf Resort remains a heartbreak to all of us who enjoy winter sports.
In other words, it’s nowhere.  And I have no prediction about Sugar Loaf for 2009 – only wishes.
I also made a few predictions about Marcus Yono of Livingston County, whose “BayView” project in the Village of Suttons Bay continues to be a thorn in the side of the community.  I predicted, correctly, that the number of lawsuits filed against the developer in 2007, nine of them, would increase in 2008.  And, by golly, during 2008 there were no fewer than a dozen lawsuits pending at various times against the developer, although many have been “settled.”   He’s still in deep doo-doo with some banks, the IRS, Suttons Bay Township and the county treasurer to name just a few, however.
I predicted erroneously that Yono’s lawuit against this newspaper and me personally would be “thrown out of court for being the baseless bit of nonsense that it is.”  Well, no court has even heard the case yet.  Yono is appealing a judge’s ruling in Livingston County that the case should be heard in Leelanau County.
My prediction is that when the Michigan Court of Appeals hears later this month that we’ve never covered any stories in Livingston County and have maybe a dozen subscribers there, Yono’s appeal over the appropriate venue for his lawsuit will be dismissed.  How much longer Yono will be able to delay the inevitable with his legal shenanigans is anybody’s guess.
Last year at this time, I predicted that Michigan’s ailing real estate market and economy would not improve in 2008.  Boy, was I right on that one.
I’ll go out on a limb this year and predict that the economy will begin to show some signs of improvement around the end of 2009.  I have some confidence that my prediction of an upward economic trend will be correct because there may be only one way left to go.
* * *
By John Tune
Last year, I’ll admit I took the easy road by only making one prediction and sticking to a topic that’s fun to talk about but difficult to forecast: snowfall totals.
I’ve lived “up north” now for 30 years, and I’ve experienced some brutal winters I’ll never forget. But last year, when gazing into my crystal ball, I didn’t foresee a rough winter in terms of snowfall.
In looking at the data, I noticed we hadn’t cracked the 150-inch barrier in snowfall for a winter since 1996-97. Also, in seven of the previous 10 Decembers, we had less than 40 inches of snow, including in 2007. So I not-so-boldly proclaimed that we wouldn’t get 150 inches of snow last winter. The final total was 138 inches, but at least it was a bit higher than the 10-year average of 125 inches between 1997-98 and 2006-07.
Since we’re already approaching 100 inches for this winter, I won’t be making any snowfall guesses. Instead, I’ll weigh in on another guessing game that’s already begun by the folks who live on or near Glen Lake. They’re all wondering when work on a new bridge over the Glen Lake Narrows will be completed in 2009.
I don’t have any special insight, and can only go by what I’ve read in the Enterprise. In early September, an MDOT official said the project will extend into the first part of summer and possibly include the July 4 holiday period. Another story two months later on the bridge project speculated the bridge would be complete “by early fall,” and the Glen Lake Chamber of Commerce website is currently reporting it will be closed until October.
The biggest question looming: will it be done in time for the annual Glen Lake bridge crossing event at the Narrows that takes place annually on Labor Day? I sure hope so, but I’m not optimistic. I’ll say the bridge won’t be ready for traffic until mid-October.
Speaking of traffic, I have another prediction that most of you will like. I see gasoline prices in the county remaining fairly low in 2009, although a bit higher than they currently are. I see a peak of around $2.50 a gallon around Memorial Day. And if that’s as high as it gets, I can live with that.